It has been a while since my last update I was trying to figure out a consistent way of trading this beast they call Forex. I'm certainly not saying that I have found it, but I believe I may be on the right track.
After my last update, I dragged my account balance down just below $4000. It was a bit of a kick up the pants seeing this, so Ifigured I had to do something sooner than later before I ran out of funds. I did play around with a couple of methods with little success before deciding on the method I have now been using for the last three weeks.
This method is based on the 5 min charts on the EUR and GBP only, where I start trading at about 5pm QLD local time which is just about the open in the UK. Nil indicators are used on the charts, just a series of horizontal lines. I guess you could call it a break out method, and I am aiming for about a combined target of +30pts for the day, then I call it quits.
Now without putting the mocker on me, I have had three successful weeks with some very early nights. Two of the weeks I only managed to trade for four days. Results so far include:
Week 1: +139pts
Week 2: +158pts
Week 3: +189pts
For a total of +486pts for three weeks. I must admit I think I have been pretty lucky so far as I haven't yet experienced a losing day. This will happen, but it shouldn't be too often. What I am relying on is an early session move that get's me in profit early. A couple of days there, I was caught out on major news moves, so had to wait for reversal trades to get me out of the poo.
I have just sorted my money management now and will risk 1.5% on each trade based on a 40pt stop loss. So at the moment my trade size is around $1.60 per pip. Slow going, I know, but my account is building slowly with my balance now just under $4,600. Back to just about where I started a year ago. What a ride!
So there you have it. Hard going it certainly is, but I do enjoy the challenge. As soon as I started blogging my balance on here, it went downhill, so hopefully I can reverse that trend now and get the struggling JAG fx account back to it's previous dizzy heights. Life's Good!
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Week Ending 12.4.08 - $4,130
A pretty quiet week just concentrating on the 4hr charts. Not much to report as yet as still finding my feet. I did make a couple of mistakes where I had 2x trades at +150pts and +130pts, letting both fall away and close out at break even. I'm going to have to reassess my exit strategy as that just isn't good enough. I don't seem to have any problems with entry, but exits certainly drag me down. I will consider closing half my position at a certain level, whether that would be a certain nmber of pips or a pivot level. I'll try a few different things in the next week or so and see how it goes.
I still find myself sitting at the computer for most of the evening. Something I was trying to get away from. So I figure I might as well play around a bit and try and come up with a small time frame strategy. Nothing of substance as yet, and again my entries seem fine, it is the old exit problem. Watch this space for further updates.
Quiet week all round, but the Roosters had a good win last night against the Panthers, as did the Titans have a rare away win against the Eels. Being a Gold Coast boy, I have a soft spot for the Titans. The Reds had a good week also, as even they couldn't lose to a Bye. Life's Good!
I still find myself sitting at the computer for most of the evening. Something I was trying to get away from. So I figure I might as well play around a bit and try and come up with a small time frame strategy. Nothing of substance as yet, and again my entries seem fine, it is the old exit problem. Watch this space for further updates.
Quiet week all round, but the Roosters had a good win last night against the Panthers, as did the Titans have a rare away win against the Eels. Being a Gold Coast boy, I have a soft spot for the Titans. The Reds had a good week also, as even they couldn't lose to a Bye. Life's Good!
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Week Ending 5.4.08 - $4,149
That's it! My small time frame trading is all but done and dusted! I just can't seem to show any consistant results with it. Started the week with trading on the 5 min chart, only to lose -60pts pretty quickly. Not for me, so I'm moving on.
I thought I would go out to the daily charts, but that is way too boring for me, so now I have settled on the 4hr time frame. I'll just be looking at the EUR, GBP, JPY and AUD for now, just to get a feel for it. Already started with mixed results. I'll talk more about it once I have got a bit of a track record, but it my basic set up using the ADX and modified MACD etc. Actually looking forward to having more free time in the evenings.
Now to the sport. Go the Roosters! A good win over the Bulldogs after a big build up all week. With the Broncos losing, the Roosters have moved up near the top of the ladder. Close comp this year, but the cream is starting to rise to the top now. The Aussies also holding the Chinese to a draw in China in a WC qualifier, was also a very good result. Now I just need the Reds to have a win, and all's good. Life's Good!
I thought I would go out to the daily charts, but that is way too boring for me, so now I have settled on the 4hr time frame. I'll just be looking at the EUR, GBP, JPY and AUD for now, just to get a feel for it. Already started with mixed results. I'll talk more about it once I have got a bit of a track record, but it my basic set up using the ADX and modified MACD etc. Actually looking forward to having more free time in the evenings.
Now to the sport. Go the Roosters! A good win over the Bulldogs after a big build up all week. With the Broncos losing, the Roosters have moved up near the top of the ladder. Close comp this year, but the cream is starting to rise to the top now. The Aussies also holding the Chinese to a draw in China in a WC qualifier, was also a very good result. Now I just need the Reds to have a win, and all's good. Life's Good!
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Week Ending 29.3.08 - $4,375
Still going backwards! The main reason being that I got caught on a big 'can't lose' trade where I couldn't maintain the margin required and therefore had to take a hit. An error on my part, as if I was able to continue with the trade, it did well and truly come back according to the plan. But not to be. So 'can't lose' trading if off the table.
I have to get back to the basics, and doing the things that I know work for me. I am basically just looking at the one pair, the EUR, on a small 5 min timeframe using ADX and MAs. Pretty basic I know, but this is what works best for me, and is in line with the FX Wizard rules. I did have a few trades this week, resulting in an overall profit of +49pts. Just have to fine tune it a bit.
Also want to trade a longer time frame, so looking at a similar set up on the EUR and GBP on the 4hr time frame. Still early days but looks promising.
I just seem to be jumping from system to system at the moment, but I always seem to come back to what I am comfortable with. I get hold of a new method I have found in a forum etc, and think, yeh that will work, give it a go, and then find out that it's not for me. The endless pursuit of the 'Holy Grail'. I should know better, that it doesn't exist, but that all you have to do is give yourself a bit of an edge and be disciplined. Simple as that really.
That's it for the week. Pretty short and sweet for me. Life's Good!
I have to get back to the basics, and doing the things that I know work for me. I am basically just looking at the one pair, the EUR, on a small 5 min timeframe using ADX and MAs. Pretty basic I know, but this is what works best for me, and is in line with the FX Wizard rules. I did have a few trades this week, resulting in an overall profit of +49pts. Just have to fine tune it a bit.
Also want to trade a longer time frame, so looking at a similar set up on the EUR and GBP on the 4hr time frame. Still early days but looks promising.
I just seem to be jumping from system to system at the moment, but I always seem to come back to what I am comfortable with. I get hold of a new method I have found in a forum etc, and think, yeh that will work, give it a go, and then find out that it's not for me. The endless pursuit of the 'Holy Grail'. I should know better, that it doesn't exist, but that all you have to do is give yourself a bit of an edge and be disciplined. Simple as that really.
That's it for the week. Pretty short and sweet for me. Life's Good!
Friday, March 21, 2008
Week Ending 21.3.08 - $4,873.59
Boy, am I going backwards!! And just to follow up from my last post, I did fall flat on my face, losing -143.5pts in three days trading.
I did have grand plans of just scalping the EUR of the 1 minute chart. It was a good plan. That's what I thought anyway. I had been playing with it previously, and I had been making some good results with it. As soon as I crank up the position size and took it to the next level, I started with 3x losers in a row which really put me behind, where I decided to play catch up. The old story then, where I didn't take a couple of signals which turned out to the big moves that would have got me out of the poo, and also Oanda crashed on me when I was about +25pts up on a trade with a break even stop, that I was just about to adjust. Oanda didn't come back up for about 30mins where the trade had closed out at B/E. The spread also didn't come down below 1.2pts, sitting around 1.6pts for most of the night. That also threw me a bit. It was just one drama after another, for a total of 16x trades. This was only the Monday.
Tuesday wasn't much better, missing the good signals, and a total of 18x trades. It was just proving way too difficult where I was getting a headache from concentrating way too much on the screen for way too many hours. Time for a change of plan.
Wednesday, I went out to the 5 min charts (again) and tried something slightly different. A good system, but again I failed to take signals, which again, were the winning signals. I must have really upset the trading godslast weekend as I just couldn't pull a trick, and my results show this well and truly. But at the end of the day, I have to take responsibility for my actions, and therefore have no one to blame but me.
Which now brings me to my next move. I have decided I need to go back to the drawing board for a while and work on a new plan. In the meantime, I'll plod along with a method called 'Can't Lose'. I have spoken about it before, and don't be fooled by the name. It is a high risk method that involves a martingale money management method if a trade goes against you. A lot of people don't agree with it or the theory behind it, but as long as you have strict money management rules, it should pay of. Very low profit value on each trade, so it is a slow and steady as she goes type method, which requires very little thought, and not much monitoring. To give you an example, on a $5000 account, with a successful +100pt trade, it would only return $10 profit. But as I trade three pairs, I would be looking for about +1000pts a week. Sounds damned impressive, but that's only $100, which is a 2% return. Then we have the compounding thing, so I'll see how it pans out. Thursday, I managed to jump into 4x trades late in the night and closed out three of them with +100pts, with 1x trade still open. Not much will happen today because of Easter though.
A long weekend, so should be a good mini break. The Roosters are playing the Broncos tonight, and the Waratahs are up against the Crusaders. Two good games there. Heading up to Toowoomba tomorrow to visit a friend. Haven't been up there for years, so should be fun. Probably drink way too much and suffer driving back down the mountain on Sunday. Enjoy Easter all and don't eat too much chocolate. Life's Good!
I did have grand plans of just scalping the EUR of the 1 minute chart. It was a good plan. That's what I thought anyway. I had been playing with it previously, and I had been making some good results with it. As soon as I crank up the position size and took it to the next level, I started with 3x losers in a row which really put me behind, where I decided to play catch up. The old story then, where I didn't take a couple of signals which turned out to the big moves that would have got me out of the poo, and also Oanda crashed on me when I was about +25pts up on a trade with a break even stop, that I was just about to adjust. Oanda didn't come back up for about 30mins where the trade had closed out at B/E. The spread also didn't come down below 1.2pts, sitting around 1.6pts for most of the night. That also threw me a bit. It was just one drama after another, for a total of 16x trades. This was only the Monday.
Tuesday wasn't much better, missing the good signals, and a total of 18x trades. It was just proving way too difficult where I was getting a headache from concentrating way too much on the screen for way too many hours. Time for a change of plan.
Wednesday, I went out to the 5 min charts (again) and tried something slightly different. A good system, but again I failed to take signals, which again, were the winning signals. I must have really upset the trading godslast weekend as I just couldn't pull a trick, and my results show this well and truly. But at the end of the day, I have to take responsibility for my actions, and therefore have no one to blame but me.
Which now brings me to my next move. I have decided I need to go back to the drawing board for a while and work on a new plan. In the meantime, I'll plod along with a method called 'Can't Lose'. I have spoken about it before, and don't be fooled by the name. It is a high risk method that involves a martingale money management method if a trade goes against you. A lot of people don't agree with it or the theory behind it, but as long as you have strict money management rules, it should pay of. Very low profit value on each trade, so it is a slow and steady as she goes type method, which requires very little thought, and not much monitoring. To give you an example, on a $5000 account, with a successful +100pt trade, it would only return $10 profit. But as I trade three pairs, I would be looking for about +1000pts a week. Sounds damned impressive, but that's only $100, which is a 2% return. Then we have the compounding thing, so I'll see how it pans out. Thursday, I managed to jump into 4x trades late in the night and closed out three of them with +100pts, with 1x trade still open. Not much will happen today because of Easter though.
A long weekend, so should be a good mini break. The Roosters are playing the Broncos tonight, and the Waratahs are up against the Crusaders. Two good games there. Heading up to Toowoomba tomorrow to visit a friend. Haven't been up there for years, so should be fun. Probably drink way too much and suffer driving back down the mountain on Sunday. Enjoy Easter all and don't eat too much chocolate. Life's Good!
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Week Ending 15.3.08 - $5,224.74
Not such a good week trading, with an overall loss of -47pts on my 15 min strategy. Having said that though, I was only able to trade four days as we had visitors here last night. It was a little frustrating this week and I am starting to see some issues with trading this way.
The first one being that I still can't shake this overtrading thing. A couple of days there, I had my pips early in the day but continued to trade. Something I have to fix myself.
My second concern being that as I am unable to trade all night, as I need sleep, is that I am missing out on some good moves in the US session. This critical if I have started with a few losses, as was the case on Monday. I was over 100pts down, when I went to bed at 2am. As Murphy's Law would have it, the new moves came after this, which would have easily recovered my losses. Come Tuesday, I was able to recover all the losses anyway, but it took a while, and again, there were some good signals after I went to bed.
Wednesday was a pretty easy day, making my points early in the piece, but stuffing up my exits. I let a lot of profit slip away. Thursday, I just blew it, having an easy +25pts locked away early in the day, decided to take a couple more trades, costing me -84pts. Silly move on my part.
So I know this method works, but it would ideally be suited to someone who can trade fulltime and take full advantage of both the entire European session and the majority of the US session. This I cannot do, due to the fact that I need some sleep for my normal daytime job, and my family is somewhat neglected, which brings me to my next adventure.
During the week, I continued tracking the 4 hour method I spoke about, with mixed results. One of the pairs I track is the AUD, and it has been all over the place lately. It is just a matter of patiently waiting for the big move and then nailing it. At this stage, I can see some potential on this method but I am going to widen it out to the daily charts, so I really only have to check it once or twice a day. I am also going to now include the GBP and JPY in this as I am giving the 15 minute method away for now. I will update on the daily results when I have racked up some trades, where I will be able to give an opinion one way or the other.
Which now brings me to something I am a little excited about. One of my close friends trades E-minis and he is quite passionate about this. So this got me a little curious, where I sent away for a DVD from E-minis Global just to see what all the fuss was about. I managed to have a look at the DVD early in the week, and it is just a bit of a teaser to get you more involved, sign up for their seminars/courses etc. But it did get me thinking. They were spruiking about why E-minis are so good to trade, and all the points they made also could (and do) refer to the Forex market. Now after speaking to my friend, I learnt that they basically scalp the market using tick and minute charts, and that they use a combination of candle patterns, indicators (secret settings!) and trend line breaks etc. Nothing new there!
Now my mind was ticking over, as I believe I have a good set of indicators, with my own secret settings (Not), but never really looked at using them for scalping. So I dropped them on a 1 minute EUR chart, and watched for a few days, taking a few trades here and there. Now to my surprise, I racked up quite a few pips without too much effort or time required. I chose the EUR as Oanda offers a 0.9pt spread on this pair and it is always moving. I kept my risk at 10pts per trade, but normally reversed before this was hit. I wasn't taking big profits on each trade, just watching the indicators for signs of reversal. Now you do have to be pretty quick on the trigger, and it does require pure concentration when getting ready to enter, entering and exiting. The trades can last a minute or two, or several minutes.
This goes back to my very well worn out theory of 10-20pts a day would make you rich. With a small percentage risk, say 1% on each trade, with a max 10pt stop, my position size for my first trade using my current account blanace of $5,224, would be 52,240 units on Oanda, which equates to approx $5.22 per pip. Hit the 20pts for the day and you would be looking at approx $100 profit for the day. Now I know it could get ugly, if you got a little greedy and hit 3x 10pt losses in a row, but believe it doesn't take much to peg that back. There are plenty of new signals to come, and it also appears that you could trade this method 24hrs a day if you were that way inclined.
As stated earlier, I am a little excited about this, which doesn't happen that often when it comes to trading theories. I will be putting my money on the line next week, and hopefully by next week's blog entry, I won't be ending up flat on my face with my tail between my legs. So I am going out on a bit of a limb here, by talking this up a bit, but only time will tell. Watch this space for profit update.
Now to the much loved sport. The Reds aren't travelling that well, copping another flogging last weekend against the Stormers. Doesn't get any easier this week, up against the Bulls and it looks as though there will be no Berrick Barnes playing. But the good news, is that the mightly Roosters started the season off with a win against arch rivals Souths, and being a Gold Coaster, it was also good to see the Titans get up against the Cowboys. Life's Good!
The first one being that I still can't shake this overtrading thing. A couple of days there, I had my pips early in the day but continued to trade. Something I have to fix myself.
My second concern being that as I am unable to trade all night, as I need sleep, is that I am missing out on some good moves in the US session. This critical if I have started with a few losses, as was the case on Monday. I was over 100pts down, when I went to bed at 2am. As Murphy's Law would have it, the new moves came after this, which would have easily recovered my losses. Come Tuesday, I was able to recover all the losses anyway, but it took a while, and again, there were some good signals after I went to bed.
Wednesday was a pretty easy day, making my points early in the piece, but stuffing up my exits. I let a lot of profit slip away. Thursday, I just blew it, having an easy +25pts locked away early in the day, decided to take a couple more trades, costing me -84pts. Silly move on my part.
So I know this method works, but it would ideally be suited to someone who can trade fulltime and take full advantage of both the entire European session and the majority of the US session. This I cannot do, due to the fact that I need some sleep for my normal daytime job, and my family is somewhat neglected, which brings me to my next adventure.
During the week, I continued tracking the 4 hour method I spoke about, with mixed results. One of the pairs I track is the AUD, and it has been all over the place lately. It is just a matter of patiently waiting for the big move and then nailing it. At this stage, I can see some potential on this method but I am going to widen it out to the daily charts, so I really only have to check it once or twice a day. I am also going to now include the GBP and JPY in this as I am giving the 15 minute method away for now. I will update on the daily results when I have racked up some trades, where I will be able to give an opinion one way or the other.
Which now brings me to something I am a little excited about. One of my close friends trades E-minis and he is quite passionate about this. So this got me a little curious, where I sent away for a DVD from E-minis Global just to see what all the fuss was about. I managed to have a look at the DVD early in the week, and it is just a bit of a teaser to get you more involved, sign up for their seminars/courses etc. But it did get me thinking. They were spruiking about why E-minis are so good to trade, and all the points they made also could (and do) refer to the Forex market. Now after speaking to my friend, I learnt that they basically scalp the market using tick and minute charts, and that they use a combination of candle patterns, indicators (secret settings!) and trend line breaks etc. Nothing new there!
Now my mind was ticking over, as I believe I have a good set of indicators, with my own secret settings (Not), but never really looked at using them for scalping. So I dropped them on a 1 minute EUR chart, and watched for a few days, taking a few trades here and there. Now to my surprise, I racked up quite a few pips without too much effort or time required. I chose the EUR as Oanda offers a 0.9pt spread on this pair and it is always moving. I kept my risk at 10pts per trade, but normally reversed before this was hit. I wasn't taking big profits on each trade, just watching the indicators for signs of reversal. Now you do have to be pretty quick on the trigger, and it does require pure concentration when getting ready to enter, entering and exiting. The trades can last a minute or two, or several minutes.
This goes back to my very well worn out theory of 10-20pts a day would make you rich. With a small percentage risk, say 1% on each trade, with a max 10pt stop, my position size for my first trade using my current account blanace of $5,224, would be 52,240 units on Oanda, which equates to approx $5.22 per pip. Hit the 20pts for the day and you would be looking at approx $100 profit for the day. Now I know it could get ugly, if you got a little greedy and hit 3x 10pt losses in a row, but believe it doesn't take much to peg that back. There are plenty of new signals to come, and it also appears that you could trade this method 24hrs a day if you were that way inclined.
As stated earlier, I am a little excited about this, which doesn't happen that often when it comes to trading theories. I will be putting my money on the line next week, and hopefully by next week's blog entry, I won't be ending up flat on my face with my tail between my legs. So I am going out on a bit of a limb here, by talking this up a bit, but only time will tell. Watch this space for profit update.
Now to the much loved sport. The Reds aren't travelling that well, copping another flogging last weekend against the Stormers. Doesn't get any easier this week, up against the Bulls and it looks as though there will be no Berrick Barnes playing. But the good news, is that the mightly Roosters started the season off with a win against arch rivals Souths, and being a Gold Coaster, it was also good to see the Titans get up against the Cowboys. Life's Good!
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Week Ending 8.3.08 - $5,319.30
A better week, but so much for the Reds up against the Brumbies. Embarrassing to say the least! Looks as though the Reds are back to where they have been for the last few years. Also a bit of a touch up in the cricket by India, losing 2 zip in the final. Not a good week in sport!
Now to the trading. It was better, where I managed to concentrate on only the one 15 min chart set up. Seems to have worked well, achieving a total of +130pts for the week. I am still making hard work of it on some days, with one of the days being an all nighter with a break even result overall. I am trying to get my pips early in the day and quit for the rest of the night. My wife likes this idea, but I still see way too many pips being left on the table.
I was using a maximum stop of 40pts (this was rarely the case) and a 1% risk on my account based on each days starting account balance. Next week, I will increase this to 1.5%, just to slowly build up my confidence again.
On Monday, I had 36pts in the bag by 5.10pm, but I couldn't help myself and kept on trading. Ended up in several more trades, closing out the last one just before 1am for a total profit of +27pts for the night. Tuesday wasn't much better, having +20pts on the table early in the day, I let it slide, with several more trades, closing at 11.30pm for a break even result. Lesson learnt!
Wednesday finishing at 5.45pm for +33pts, Thursday finishing at 6.30pm for +36pts, and Friday (Non Farm Payrolls day) finishing just before 5pm for +44pts.
So as you can see, the last three days were kind to me, and I actually used a bit of discipline. But the charts are in front of me and I can clearly see what could have happened. This is hard for me.
Which brings me to my next point. I figured if I can be in and out pretty quickly with the 15 min charts, I may as well work on a longer time frame strategy. So I have been toying with a 4hr strategy on the AUD, EUR/JPY and CHF. Pretty simple set up, with the use of weekly pivot lines, ADX and the Modified MACD I use a lot. It is only early days so far and I can see potential once I iron out a few bugs. At the moment I am only playing with it, risking 0.5% on each trade and allowing for a maximum stop loss of 300pts. So as you can see, the position sizes are pretty small for now. To early to tell how it will go, but I'll keep this blog updated with my findings as I progress.
I probably forgot to give my 15 min chart set up, so here it is.
Obviously 15 min chart, where I prefer to use candles. I have also got the daily pivot lines on there just to give me an idea of where to aim for or set stops. There is also a MT4 custom indicator called ASC SellBuy Sound which gives buy and sell arrows on the chart with an audible warning. Also there is Parabolic SAR that has to be in the direction I am trading. Also used as a guide for stop placement.
Then below the chart I have a Stochastic Oscillator with the settings of 10, 6, 6. Nothing to do with overbought or oversold, just enter a trade with the direction of the lines. Simple as that.
Then below this, I have my modified MACD with the settings of 4, 12, 1. All I want to see here on the chart, is the fast line oscillating around the zero horizontal line.
So it is just a matter of all the signals being aligned before I take a trade. For example, a buy, I must have had a buy arrow, PAR SAR must be below price, Stoch heading up, and MACD above the zero line. I also watch for breaks of pivot lines if the price is close to them. Then I just monitor the open trade, watching for reversal signals, pivot points etc. Being aware of any news that may affect the pair I am trading. As I am trading the GBP, EUR and JPY, I may have three open trades, and it's just amatter of watching the total pips to give me an idea of where I am at. If there is a quick move that gives me good profit, Iwill close one or two trades immediately and then let the other one run. That's the plan anyway.
That's it in a nutshell. If anyone does trade on the MT4 platform and would like a template of the above set up sent to them, feel free to drop me an email at buff33@nerdshack.com
That's enough rambling for the week. Cheers. Life's Good!
Now to the trading. It was better, where I managed to concentrate on only the one 15 min chart set up. Seems to have worked well, achieving a total of +130pts for the week. I am still making hard work of it on some days, with one of the days being an all nighter with a break even result overall. I am trying to get my pips early in the day and quit for the rest of the night. My wife likes this idea, but I still see way too many pips being left on the table.
I was using a maximum stop of 40pts (this was rarely the case) and a 1% risk on my account based on each days starting account balance. Next week, I will increase this to 1.5%, just to slowly build up my confidence again.
On Monday, I had 36pts in the bag by 5.10pm, but I couldn't help myself and kept on trading. Ended up in several more trades, closing out the last one just before 1am for a total profit of +27pts for the night. Tuesday wasn't much better, having +20pts on the table early in the day, I let it slide, with several more trades, closing at 11.30pm for a break even result. Lesson learnt!
Wednesday finishing at 5.45pm for +33pts, Thursday finishing at 6.30pm for +36pts, and Friday (Non Farm Payrolls day) finishing just before 5pm for +44pts.
So as you can see, the last three days were kind to me, and I actually used a bit of discipline. But the charts are in front of me and I can clearly see what could have happened. This is hard for me.
Which brings me to my next point. I figured if I can be in and out pretty quickly with the 15 min charts, I may as well work on a longer time frame strategy. So I have been toying with a 4hr strategy on the AUD, EUR/JPY and CHF. Pretty simple set up, with the use of weekly pivot lines, ADX and the Modified MACD I use a lot. It is only early days so far and I can see potential once I iron out a few bugs. At the moment I am only playing with it, risking 0.5% on each trade and allowing for a maximum stop loss of 300pts. So as you can see, the position sizes are pretty small for now. To early to tell how it will go, but I'll keep this blog updated with my findings as I progress.
I probably forgot to give my 15 min chart set up, so here it is.
Obviously 15 min chart, where I prefer to use candles. I have also got the daily pivot lines on there just to give me an idea of where to aim for or set stops. There is also a MT4 custom indicator called ASC SellBuy Sound which gives buy and sell arrows on the chart with an audible warning. Also there is Parabolic SAR that has to be in the direction I am trading. Also used as a guide for stop placement.
Then below the chart I have a Stochastic Oscillator with the settings of 10, 6, 6. Nothing to do with overbought or oversold, just enter a trade with the direction of the lines. Simple as that.
Then below this, I have my modified MACD with the settings of 4, 12, 1. All I want to see here on the chart, is the fast line oscillating around the zero horizontal line.
So it is just a matter of all the signals being aligned before I take a trade. For example, a buy, I must have had a buy arrow, PAR SAR must be below price, Stoch heading up, and MACD above the zero line. I also watch for breaks of pivot lines if the price is close to them. Then I just monitor the open trade, watching for reversal signals, pivot points etc. Being aware of any news that may affect the pair I am trading. As I am trading the GBP, EUR and JPY, I may have three open trades, and it's just amatter of watching the total pips to give me an idea of where I am at. If there is a quick move that gives me good profit, Iwill close one or two trades immediately and then let the other one run. That's the plan anyway.
That's it in a nutshell. If anyone does trade on the MT4 platform and would like a template of the above set up sent to them, feel free to drop me an email at buff33@nerdshack.com
That's enough rambling for the week. Cheers. Life's Good!
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Week Ending 1.3.08 - $5,139.61
Happy Birthday to me!
Now to the trading. Not much happened this week, as I only traded on the Monday with a decent position size. My carry over GBP trade from last week stopped out for a loss, and this was followed by 4x more FX Wizard trades for a small overall loss. That was basically it for the week.
Lately I have been trying to design my own 15 minute time frame trading style, and following this really affected last weeks trading, where I was having difficulty in following both this and the FX Wizard trades. I therefore decided to back off on the FX Wizard trading until I work out my own thing.
I also had a bit of a play with trading on the 5 min charts, but once again, I proved it wasn't my thing. The 15 min charts seem to suit me and generally I can do okay with them. The problem with my set up last week on my trial run, was that even though I was nailing my 20pt target each day, I found I was leaving too much on the table and also I wasn't happy with my risk/reward ratio. So after reading a lot of my forex stuff over the last few days and trying different indicators, I have come up with another set up that seems to produce some good high probability set ups. It isn't perfect, but when the big move comes, I should be on it. I did play with it during the week and found it quite profitable. I was trading it live, albeit very small positions, so next week I'll ramp it up a bit, and concentrate on it solely to give it a fair go. This will all be covered in next weeks blog update.
So all in all, a pretty quiet week on the trading front. Nearly the end of the cricket with the Aussies having a shocker against Sri Lanka last night. Should have won that one easily! The league is not far from starting the season proper, and the mighty Reds are up agains the Brumbies tonight. Life's Good!
Now to the trading. Not much happened this week, as I only traded on the Monday with a decent position size. My carry over GBP trade from last week stopped out for a loss, and this was followed by 4x more FX Wizard trades for a small overall loss. That was basically it for the week.
Lately I have been trying to design my own 15 minute time frame trading style, and following this really affected last weeks trading, where I was having difficulty in following both this and the FX Wizard trades. I therefore decided to back off on the FX Wizard trading until I work out my own thing.
I also had a bit of a play with trading on the 5 min charts, but once again, I proved it wasn't my thing. The 15 min charts seem to suit me and generally I can do okay with them. The problem with my set up last week on my trial run, was that even though I was nailing my 20pt target each day, I found I was leaving too much on the table and also I wasn't happy with my risk/reward ratio. So after reading a lot of my forex stuff over the last few days and trying different indicators, I have come up with another set up that seems to produce some good high probability set ups. It isn't perfect, but when the big move comes, I should be on it. I did play with it during the week and found it quite profitable. I was trading it live, albeit very small positions, so next week I'll ramp it up a bit, and concentrate on it solely to give it a fair go. This will all be covered in next weeks blog update.
So all in all, a pretty quiet week on the trading front. Nearly the end of the cricket with the Aussies having a shocker against Sri Lanka last night. Should have won that one easily! The league is not far from starting the season proper, and the mighty Reds are up agains the Brumbies tonight. Life's Good!
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Week Ending 23.2.08 - $5,347.19
As you can see by my balance, it wasn't a good week. I would actually say it was of my worse. There were 11x trades for a total loss of -221pts. Ouch!!
What do I see as being the problem? Me. Poor discipline once again. I was trying to follow another 15 min trading system which distracted me from my bread and butter trading. My concentration went out the window, where I made some simple errors.
I did not trade on Monday as it was a holiday in the US. Tuesday and Wedensday were shockers. I certainly picked some tops and bottoms, and suffered accordingly. I then tried to make up my losses by then not following my usual rule of closing half the position out at around the +20pt mark. This cost me as a few of my trades went to that area. Instead I was aiming for pivot lines, going for the big kill. My last trade on Wednesday was at one stage, +70pts, and I let this turn into a break even result overall. Shame on me!
Thursday and Friday, I was shattered and couldn't really get into it, as again I was concentrating on the other method. I did make a couple of trades, making the same mistakes, and even closing the week with an open GBP long.
So there you have it. Not a good week at all with regards to my FX Wizard trading, but only me to blame. Having said that though, my other 15 min trading went along pretty well. Over the weekend I am going to have to think about this and only concentrate on the one method. It is just oo hard following both on the same time frame.
Just to top off a crappy week, the Reds got beaten last night by the Hurricanes over in NZ. At least we got a bonus point which truly is a bonus for the Reds playing over the ditch. Life's Good! (maybe not the trading though)
What do I see as being the problem? Me. Poor discipline once again. I was trying to follow another 15 min trading system which distracted me from my bread and butter trading. My concentration went out the window, where I made some simple errors.
I did not trade on Monday as it was a holiday in the US. Tuesday and Wedensday were shockers. I certainly picked some tops and bottoms, and suffered accordingly. I then tried to make up my losses by then not following my usual rule of closing half the position out at around the +20pt mark. This cost me as a few of my trades went to that area. Instead I was aiming for pivot lines, going for the big kill. My last trade on Wednesday was at one stage, +70pts, and I let this turn into a break even result overall. Shame on me!
Thursday and Friday, I was shattered and couldn't really get into it, as again I was concentrating on the other method. I did make a couple of trades, making the same mistakes, and even closing the week with an open GBP long.
So there you have it. Not a good week at all with regards to my FX Wizard trading, but only me to blame. Having said that though, my other 15 min trading went along pretty well. Over the weekend I am going to have to think about this and only concentrate on the one method. It is just oo hard following both on the same time frame.
Just to top off a crappy week, the Reds got beaten last night by the Hurricanes over in NZ. At least we got a bonus point which truly is a bonus for the Reds playing over the ditch. Life's Good! (maybe not the trading though)
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Week Ending 16.2.08 - $6,001.75
Slowly but surely getting my act together, completing 17x trades this week for an overall profit of +92.5pts profit. Still not quite the 100pt target, but happy still the same. It was a mixed week with some late nights. I normally like to be in bed by midnight local, which is 1hr after the US session opens, but I was forced into a couple of late ones to make the target.
My biggest problem seems to be that I am constantly starting the day with a loss, which puts me well behind before I even get going. I am now trying to limit my starting time to 6pm local, which is the open of the London session. Another problem I have, is that if I do get in profit early, I find it hard to close all my trades and just take the 20pts on offer. This is something I am going to have to work on, where if the profit is achieved early in the session, then I have just got to close out and walk away. The greed factor has to be ignored.
I also have to move a bit quicker to close losing trades and reverse if there is a signal to do so. I sometimes hesitate, thinking it is just a pullback, but nine times out of ten, it isn't that at all - the market direction is changing.
There is nothing out of the ordinary to report on a daily basis, so I won't go through the individual days. The good thing was, there were only the 4x losing trades, and I was well aware of all major news releases during the week. See, I do learn from my mistakes eventually.
Now, even though I enjoy trading the FX Wizard method and find it pretty consistent, I still think I am spending way too much time at the computer and neglecting my family during the evening. Because of this, I am working on another 15 minute method based on a very simple technical set up, where I should be able to grab my 20pts for the day pretty quickly. More on this later as I want to give it a trial run this week on a live account, using very small position sizes.
Now to Money Management. At the moment trading this FX Wizard method on the 15 minute charts, I am basing my max risk on 2% per trade on a max 40pt stop. So even if I enter a trade, and it only has a 25pt stop, the position size is still based on a 40pt stop. My position size is recalculated each day based on my account balance, and I use the same size for all trades that day. I find that this gives me some consistency, and should continue to compound my account growth as long as I am profitable. To give you an example, on Monday with an account balance of $5,729, my position size on Oanda started the week at 28,648 untis. This Monday, with an account balance of just over $6,000, my starting position size will be 30,005 units with Oanda.
I am a fairly conservative trader and could quite comfortably increase my risk to 3 or 4% per trade, and may do this sometime in the future, but I would first like to show some consistency with what I am doing at the moment. It is a very simple method of money management, and can show some good results if your trading system is profitable. No form of money management will turn a losing method into a winning one, all it may do, is delay the inevitable.
And now to the rugby. Super 14 has started and the Reds got off to a good start with a win at home against the Highlanders. I'm not getting too excited as I think both these teams will finish near the bottom of the ladder as there wasn't much to inspire me to think otherwise from last nights lacklustre performance, from both sides. But it is only game 1, so plenty of time to improve. Life's Good!!
My biggest problem seems to be that I am constantly starting the day with a loss, which puts me well behind before I even get going. I am now trying to limit my starting time to 6pm local, which is the open of the London session. Another problem I have, is that if I do get in profit early, I find it hard to close all my trades and just take the 20pts on offer. This is something I am going to have to work on, where if the profit is achieved early in the session, then I have just got to close out and walk away. The greed factor has to be ignored.
I also have to move a bit quicker to close losing trades and reverse if there is a signal to do so. I sometimes hesitate, thinking it is just a pullback, but nine times out of ten, it isn't that at all - the market direction is changing.
There is nothing out of the ordinary to report on a daily basis, so I won't go through the individual days. The good thing was, there were only the 4x losing trades, and I was well aware of all major news releases during the week. See, I do learn from my mistakes eventually.
Now, even though I enjoy trading the FX Wizard method and find it pretty consistent, I still think I am spending way too much time at the computer and neglecting my family during the evening. Because of this, I am working on another 15 minute method based on a very simple technical set up, where I should be able to grab my 20pts for the day pretty quickly. More on this later as I want to give it a trial run this week on a live account, using very small position sizes.
Now to Money Management. At the moment trading this FX Wizard method on the 15 minute charts, I am basing my max risk on 2% per trade on a max 40pt stop. So even if I enter a trade, and it only has a 25pt stop, the position size is still based on a 40pt stop. My position size is recalculated each day based on my account balance, and I use the same size for all trades that day. I find that this gives me some consistency, and should continue to compound my account growth as long as I am profitable. To give you an example, on Monday with an account balance of $5,729, my position size on Oanda started the week at 28,648 untis. This Monday, with an account balance of just over $6,000, my starting position size will be 30,005 units with Oanda.
I am a fairly conservative trader and could quite comfortably increase my risk to 3 or 4% per trade, and may do this sometime in the future, but I would first like to show some consistency with what I am doing at the moment. It is a very simple method of money management, and can show some good results if your trading system is profitable. No form of money management will turn a losing method into a winning one, all it may do, is delay the inevitable.
And now to the rugby. Super 14 has started and the Reds got off to a good start with a win at home against the Highlanders. I'm not getting too excited as I think both these teams will finish near the bottom of the ladder as there wasn't much to inspire me to think otherwise from last nights lacklustre performance, from both sides. But it is only game 1, so plenty of time to improve. Life's Good!!
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Week Ending 9.2.08 - $5,729.74
A little better this week, managing an overall profit of a huge +55.5pts. But I'll take that over a -200pt loss any day!
All my week's trading revolved around the FX Wizard method on the 15 min charts, just sticking to the EUR and GBP for now. There were 17x trades all up, and each involved a 2% risk on my account, with a potential max stop of 40pts set on each. I calculate my 2% risk at the begining of each day, so every trade on the same day will involve the same position size.
Boy did I make a few boo boos!
Monday, had a good start hitting a profit of just over 50pts by 7pm local time. That should have been enough for the night, but I didn't stop there, going for another trade which resulted in a -35pt loss. Not the smartest thing I've done.
Tuesday, made the mistake (again!) of not being aware of major news. Entered a GBP trade 13 mins before news and duly stopped out. Once the news was out of the way, managed to get my act together and finish the night with +60pts.
Wednesday was a nothing night, with just the one trade and a +27.5pts profit for the night. Looking good so far for the week.
Thursday! Should have been somewhere else. I just went into stupid mode today, making quite a few mistakes, and embarrassing ones at that. Probably started trading too early in the day before the London open, which put me back behind the 8 ball straight up. Then the fun began. I went long on a EUR trade where I supposed to go short, but somehow managed to see my error quickly and closed out for a +5pt profit. Then I did exactly the same thing on a GBP trade, where I intended to place an order to close half at a certain level. The level was reached, and now I had a bigger position. Just threw me out of whack completely, where I got a little confused, and eventually accidentally closed out the whole position way too early. I did manage to get my act together, and a few hours later, closed out all my trades at what I thought was a break even result for the night. But as it turned out, my calculations were wrong, finishing -11.5pts down for the day. It was a long session, and a dumb one!!
Friday, was also a quiet night, with no major news and a few beers along the way. 2x trades only and missed an opportunity to close out both in some sort of profit, ending up the night for a loss of -33pts.
So as you can see, it was a mixed week. I'll have to watch my entry times and consider only entering close to 6pm local which is when London opens. Because I am basically day trading, I really need to close half my position when it gets to about +20pts. I can still leave the remaining half stop in the original position until I feel it is safe to move it. I believe if I can cut out these silly mistakes, and get my discipline in order, then I should be well on my way to having some decent results here.
Big night in the cricket with the Aussies giving the Sri Lankans a real touch up. The footy is also getting closer with the Super 14 teams now having trials - bring it on! Life's Good!
All my week's trading revolved around the FX Wizard method on the 15 min charts, just sticking to the EUR and GBP for now. There were 17x trades all up, and each involved a 2% risk on my account, with a potential max stop of 40pts set on each. I calculate my 2% risk at the begining of each day, so every trade on the same day will involve the same position size.
Boy did I make a few boo boos!
Monday, had a good start hitting a profit of just over 50pts by 7pm local time. That should have been enough for the night, but I didn't stop there, going for another trade which resulted in a -35pt loss. Not the smartest thing I've done.
Tuesday, made the mistake (again!) of not being aware of major news. Entered a GBP trade 13 mins before news and duly stopped out. Once the news was out of the way, managed to get my act together and finish the night with +60pts.
Wednesday was a nothing night, with just the one trade and a +27.5pts profit for the night. Looking good so far for the week.
Thursday! Should have been somewhere else. I just went into stupid mode today, making quite a few mistakes, and embarrassing ones at that. Probably started trading too early in the day before the London open, which put me back behind the 8 ball straight up. Then the fun began. I went long on a EUR trade where I supposed to go short, but somehow managed to see my error quickly and closed out for a +5pt profit. Then I did exactly the same thing on a GBP trade, where I intended to place an order to close half at a certain level. The level was reached, and now I had a bigger position. Just threw me out of whack completely, where I got a little confused, and eventually accidentally closed out the whole position way too early. I did manage to get my act together, and a few hours later, closed out all my trades at what I thought was a break even result for the night. But as it turned out, my calculations were wrong, finishing -11.5pts down for the day. It was a long session, and a dumb one!!
Friday, was also a quiet night, with no major news and a few beers along the way. 2x trades only and missed an opportunity to close out both in some sort of profit, ending up the night for a loss of -33pts.
So as you can see, it was a mixed week. I'll have to watch my entry times and consider only entering close to 6pm local which is when London opens. Because I am basically day trading, I really need to close half my position when it gets to about +20pts. I can still leave the remaining half stop in the original position until I feel it is safe to move it. I believe if I can cut out these silly mistakes, and get my discipline in order, then I should be well on my way to having some decent results here.
Big night in the cricket with the Aussies giving the Sri Lankans a real touch up. The footy is also getting closer with the Super 14 teams now having trials - bring it on! Life's Good!
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Week Ending 2.2.08 - $5,568.90
What a shocker!
As you can see from my account balance above, it wasn't a real good week for me. One of my worse overall. Murphy's Law would have it as soon as I post my account balance, I have put the mocker on myself. That's trading for you.
So now to break it down and see where I went wrong, losing -204.5pts.
As already stated, I have cancelled my Power Break Challenge subscription, but decided to finish off the week with it. Probably not a good move as there was an overall loss of -200pts on these signals alone. Which, with my money management rules, equates to approx $600. So there are the majority of my losses straight up. That is the end of the Power Break Challenge trades. So now I can concentrate on my own stuff.
Now to the FX Wizard trades. Nothing really took off all week and I couldn't trade on Wednesday due to me attending a seminar. But on a good note, even with a small amount of trades, I still managed to profit +37.5pts for the week. Not earth shattering, I know, but enough to keep me excited.
And then there was the 5 minute scalping method I have been toying with on the EUR and JPY. I had been watching this method for a few weeks basically demoing it and doing okay, so decided to go in full on sticking to my 2% risk on a 20pt stop, which equates to approx $6 a pip. Now my first problem was I didn't show enough patience waiting for the correct set ups, and soon as I suffered a few losses, I was playing catch up. Overall I lost -42pts on this method over the week. This should hve been reduced by 20pts as silly me took a position just a few minutes before major news, which gave me an instant -20pt loss, which resulted in me giving myself an instant upper cut for being so stupid. I knew the news was coming but forgot all about it. Doh! I also didn't take profit when it was on the table, letting a few trades close out a break even instead of +10. The main problem was not waiting for the correct set up though. I have now dropped the JPY and will just concentrate on the EUR for now, and also halve my position size until I get my head around it.
So back to the drawing board next week, head down arse up, and hopefully show better discipline now that the Power Break Challenge trades are out of the picture. Looking forward to the challenge! Life's Good!
As you can see from my account balance above, it wasn't a real good week for me. One of my worse overall. Murphy's Law would have it as soon as I post my account balance, I have put the mocker on myself. That's trading for you.
So now to break it down and see where I went wrong, losing -204.5pts.
As already stated, I have cancelled my Power Break Challenge subscription, but decided to finish off the week with it. Probably not a good move as there was an overall loss of -200pts on these signals alone. Which, with my money management rules, equates to approx $600. So there are the majority of my losses straight up. That is the end of the Power Break Challenge trades. So now I can concentrate on my own stuff.
Now to the FX Wizard trades. Nothing really took off all week and I couldn't trade on Wednesday due to me attending a seminar. But on a good note, even with a small amount of trades, I still managed to profit +37.5pts for the week. Not earth shattering, I know, but enough to keep me excited.
And then there was the 5 minute scalping method I have been toying with on the EUR and JPY. I had been watching this method for a few weeks basically demoing it and doing okay, so decided to go in full on sticking to my 2% risk on a 20pt stop, which equates to approx $6 a pip. Now my first problem was I didn't show enough patience waiting for the correct set ups, and soon as I suffered a few losses, I was playing catch up. Overall I lost -42pts on this method over the week. This should hve been reduced by 20pts as silly me took a position just a few minutes before major news, which gave me an instant -20pt loss, which resulted in me giving myself an instant upper cut for being so stupid. I knew the news was coming but forgot all about it. Doh! I also didn't take profit when it was on the table, letting a few trades close out a break even instead of +10. The main problem was not waiting for the correct set up though. I have now dropped the JPY and will just concentrate on the EUR for now, and also halve my position size until I get my head around it.
So back to the drawing board next week, head down arse up, and hopefully show better discipline now that the Power Break Challenge trades are out of the picture. Looking forward to the challenge! Life's Good!
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Week Ending 26.1.08
Well today is Australia Day, which means a long weekend here, and it also nearly time for the kids to go back to school.
On the trading scene, there have been some changes. I have decided to cancel my subscription to the Power Break Challege at the end of the current month. There were only the 3x trades this week resulting in an overall loss of -40pts. I have been looking over my trading records on the PB Challenge and I see that I have completed 94x trades to date since the 31st of October for an overall result of +131pts. That is nearly 3x months for a pretty low return. I think I have given it a fair shake for 3x months, but it just isn't setting the world on fire. The upside is that as a Challenge member I had to purchase the Ebook that explains the trading rules. I just won't have access to the forum or the discretionary trades that occurr every now and then. At least I'll save US$40 per month on subscription fees.
I did manage to have a bit of a play with the FX Wizard method this week, completing about 8x trades for an overall loss of -29 1/2 pts. I did make some mistakes, by not being patient enough, getting in just before major news and closing out too early. So overall, I'm pretty happy with the potential here. I am only concentrating on the 15 min EUR and JPY for now.
I was also having a play with my own 5 min scalping method on the same pairs, having a bit of success. More on this later as I fine tune it and give it a decent run. I like what I see though as my trading could be done for the day sooner than later. Watch this space!
Now to something I have been a bit reluctant to discuss on such a public forum, and that is specific account details. My main reason was to protect myself from possible government snooping and protecting my privacy somewhat. But what the hell, this is only a small play account where I dabble in Forex trading. So from now on I'll show my account balance on a weekly basis. This can all be verified by my Oanda statements if anyone would like further proof.
Keep in mind I did trade fulltime for just over a year, which proved very tough going and very stressful at times. I was following other peoples ideas way too much and this cost me. Having said that though, the blame lies squarely on my shoulders for going down that track. I didn't blow my account, even though it was a losing year, the biggest problem was not making money on a regular basis and therefore having to dip into my savings to make ends meet. My wife and I were both govt employees making good dollars every fortnight. When you leave the security of a job like that (after 25 years) it can turn your world upside down.
I eventually went back to a real job and took a break from trading. My pride was hurt and I was damaged goods there for a while, thinking I was a failure and let the family down. But trading is my thing so I kept an eye on the ball, slowly dabbling my way back into it, always with the intention of going back to it fulltime, eventually. I re read Warket Wizards, as most of the gun traders in there had failed at least once, maybe more, before coming good again. Anything to get me inspired and motivated.
So on the 18th June 2007 I started back part time with an Oanda account with a starting balance of US$4,674.55. Not a huge sum, but enough to give me something to play with. Today, just over 7x months later, my account balance stands at $6,298.01. This represents a profit of just over $1,600 which is approx a 34% gain so far. Not spectacular by ay means, but you won't get that from a bank. This is my hobby, and hopefully one day, my fulltime occupation, so a lot of lovin' goes into it. I have made some dumb mistakes along the way and probably will continue to do so, but as long as the acount balance increases, I'll be happy with that.
Anyway, I've dribbled on way longer than normal, and have probably bored my few readers to death. But I guess, I have bared my soul a little here today and I feel better for it. Cheers. LIfe's Good!
On the trading scene, there have been some changes. I have decided to cancel my subscription to the Power Break Challege at the end of the current month. There were only the 3x trades this week resulting in an overall loss of -40pts. I have been looking over my trading records on the PB Challenge and I see that I have completed 94x trades to date since the 31st of October for an overall result of +131pts. That is nearly 3x months for a pretty low return. I think I have given it a fair shake for 3x months, but it just isn't setting the world on fire. The upside is that as a Challenge member I had to purchase the Ebook that explains the trading rules. I just won't have access to the forum or the discretionary trades that occurr every now and then. At least I'll save US$40 per month on subscription fees.
I did manage to have a bit of a play with the FX Wizard method this week, completing about 8x trades for an overall loss of -29 1/2 pts. I did make some mistakes, by not being patient enough, getting in just before major news and closing out too early. So overall, I'm pretty happy with the potential here. I am only concentrating on the 15 min EUR and JPY for now.
I was also having a play with my own 5 min scalping method on the same pairs, having a bit of success. More on this later as I fine tune it and give it a decent run. I like what I see though as my trading could be done for the day sooner than later. Watch this space!
Now to something I have been a bit reluctant to discuss on such a public forum, and that is specific account details. My main reason was to protect myself from possible government snooping and protecting my privacy somewhat. But what the hell, this is only a small play account where I dabble in Forex trading. So from now on I'll show my account balance on a weekly basis. This can all be verified by my Oanda statements if anyone would like further proof.
Keep in mind I did trade fulltime for just over a year, which proved very tough going and very stressful at times. I was following other peoples ideas way too much and this cost me. Having said that though, the blame lies squarely on my shoulders for going down that track. I didn't blow my account, even though it was a losing year, the biggest problem was not making money on a regular basis and therefore having to dip into my savings to make ends meet. My wife and I were both govt employees making good dollars every fortnight. When you leave the security of a job like that (after 25 years) it can turn your world upside down.
I eventually went back to a real job and took a break from trading. My pride was hurt and I was damaged goods there for a while, thinking I was a failure and let the family down. But trading is my thing so I kept an eye on the ball, slowly dabbling my way back into it, always with the intention of going back to it fulltime, eventually. I re read Warket Wizards, as most of the gun traders in there had failed at least once, maybe more, before coming good again. Anything to get me inspired and motivated.
So on the 18th June 2007 I started back part time with an Oanda account with a starting balance of US$4,674.55. Not a huge sum, but enough to give me something to play with. Today, just over 7x months later, my account balance stands at $6,298.01. This represents a profit of just over $1,600 which is approx a 34% gain so far. Not spectacular by ay means, but you won't get that from a bank. This is my hobby, and hopefully one day, my fulltime occupation, so a lot of lovin' goes into it. I have made some dumb mistakes along the way and probably will continue to do so, but as long as the acount balance increases, I'll be happy with that.
Anyway, I've dribbled on way longer than normal, and have probably bored my few readers to death. But I guess, I have bared my soul a little here today and I feel better for it. Cheers. LIfe's Good!
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Week Ending 19.1.08
Another week gone, and again the Power Break trades had a pretty crappy start, losing 3x trades on the Monday. There was a 4th trade which broke even. Tuesday was an overall break even day, as was Wednesday. Then on Thursday and Friday, there was one winning trade each day, which resulted in an overall loss for the week of -40pts.
My AUD Daily trade also hit the +200pt mark, so I closed half my position for a +202pts and then moved the remaining half stop to break even. This was taken out on Wednesday, when there was a big move against the AUD. Bummer that, but still a good result.
Now my thinking has been leaning towards trading off the daily charts, where I would spend less time at the computer and hopefully capture the bigger moves. But I must admit that I am struggling with this concept, and I think the main reason is, that I like the action too much. With the daily charts there is a long time between trades and I do find it quite boring. I don't think this style of trading suits my personality.
The Power Break trades I like due to the fact they are basically set and forget, being a totally mechanical system. So for now, they are here to stay. These only cover the GBP and EUR/JPY. Now my next option was to look back through all my old trading records and see what has worked for me. The one stand out method was the FX Wizard. I showed consistent profits on this system using the 15 min time frame. There is a bit of chart interpretation required and you have to show some patience, but I believe it is a very sound method that can produce consistent results without too much drawdown. So this is what I will be looking at for the next few weeks, concentrating on the EUR and JPY for now. Going back to my old theory of 10-20pts a day would be suffice. So watch this space for more on this method.
So for now, the SITM, the Daily and the Turtles are off the radar whilst I concentrate on the Power Break and FX Wizard trading. The Turtle positions I had on a EUR long was stopped out for a near -600pt loss, but the JPY short was closed with just over +900pts profit. I can see potential using this method, but again it can be a long time between trades, which bores me. Maybe I am a bit of an adrenalin junkie and require the faster action to keep me interested. I know I certainly sleep better when I go to bed with no trades open.
Now the non trading chit chat. I have just set up Google alerts to find the words 'forex' and 'jag fx', and to alert me on a daily basis if they come up. Very cool tool as it really gives me access to other trading ideas.
Today in the cricket, the Aussies will be struggling to reach India's big total and force an unbelievable victory. I can't see it, with 2 down already, but if any team can do it, then this is the team to do it. Should be interesting. Other than that, Life's Good!
My AUD Daily trade also hit the +200pt mark, so I closed half my position for a +202pts and then moved the remaining half stop to break even. This was taken out on Wednesday, when there was a big move against the AUD. Bummer that, but still a good result.
Now my thinking has been leaning towards trading off the daily charts, where I would spend less time at the computer and hopefully capture the bigger moves. But I must admit that I am struggling with this concept, and I think the main reason is, that I like the action too much. With the daily charts there is a long time between trades and I do find it quite boring. I don't think this style of trading suits my personality.
The Power Break trades I like due to the fact they are basically set and forget, being a totally mechanical system. So for now, they are here to stay. These only cover the GBP and EUR/JPY. Now my next option was to look back through all my old trading records and see what has worked for me. The one stand out method was the FX Wizard. I showed consistent profits on this system using the 15 min time frame. There is a bit of chart interpretation required and you have to show some patience, but I believe it is a very sound method that can produce consistent results without too much drawdown. So this is what I will be looking at for the next few weeks, concentrating on the EUR and JPY for now. Going back to my old theory of 10-20pts a day would be suffice. So watch this space for more on this method.
So for now, the SITM, the Daily and the Turtles are off the radar whilst I concentrate on the Power Break and FX Wizard trading. The Turtle positions I had on a EUR long was stopped out for a near -600pt loss, but the JPY short was closed with just over +900pts profit. I can see potential using this method, but again it can be a long time between trades, which bores me. Maybe I am a bit of an adrenalin junkie and require the faster action to keep me interested. I know I certainly sleep better when I go to bed with no trades open.
Now the non trading chit chat. I have just set up Google alerts to find the words 'forex' and 'jag fx', and to alert me on a daily basis if they come up. Very cool tool as it really gives me access to other trading ideas.
Today in the cricket, the Aussies will be struggling to reach India's big total and force an unbelievable victory. I can't see it, with 2 down already, but if any team can do it, then this is the team to do it. Should be interesting. Other than that, Life's Good!
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Week Ending 12.1.08
Another week gone in the trading world, and it wasn't a real good one. The Power Break trades, which is my main trading strategy, didn't start the week well, with four losses on the Monday. Bummer! It did manage to pull back some the following two days, recovering 111pts out of the 160pts lost, but then on Thursday gave back another 40pts. Nil trades on Friday, finishing the week at a -89pt loss overall.
I also had another SITM trade during the week, going short on the JPY. It was also stopped out a day later for a -89pt loss. The SITM method has been dragging its heels lately, where I can't seem to get onto a decent trend. I'll keep on tracking it for a while, but I really need to see some results shortly to keep me motivated with this method. I like the simplicity of it, so I am keen to continue if it proves its worth.
My daily AUD trade is still open and was up around +180pts before pulling back late on Friday. I'm not sure I'll continue with this method as I am getting a little too much on my trading plate at the moment. I have also been tracking a couple of Turtle trades, short on JPY and long EUR, with neither really going anywhere.
During the week, I have been looking at some other methods where it again dawned on me that I am going back to my old ways of trying everything and not really settling in my trading. The Power Break trades are certainly part of the plan for now, and ideally I would like one other trading method based on other pairs involving the use of daily charts. Having a little problem with finding something at the moment. I am also going back to my thinking of 10-20pts a day would be suffice if you could just about guarantee it on a daily basis. I know there are no 'guarantees' in trading, so it is going to take something special to achieve these reults, but as always, I have a few ideas.
My live trading is with Oanda, where I normally risk 2% on my major trades. These being the Power Break trades which always have a 40pt stop, the SITM trades which use a max stop of 175pts and the Daily trades which have a standard 300pt stop. With using 2% risk, my position sizes are obviously going to be different for each type of trade, and I always base my position size on the max loss for the method. Any other method I try, I still trade live on Oanda, but only use a very small position size which is normally around 1000 units. This just keeps me interested enough to make a few dollars if it goes my way, or it is not a big enough loss to get concerned about if it goes against me.
Also went for a job interview on Friday, and not sure how I went. If I were to get the job, then my trading will be suspended for approx three months whilst I complete my training away from home. Watch this space for further updates. Life's Good!!
I also had another SITM trade during the week, going short on the JPY. It was also stopped out a day later for a -89pt loss. The SITM method has been dragging its heels lately, where I can't seem to get onto a decent trend. I'll keep on tracking it for a while, but I really need to see some results shortly to keep me motivated with this method. I like the simplicity of it, so I am keen to continue if it proves its worth.
My daily AUD trade is still open and was up around +180pts before pulling back late on Friday. I'm not sure I'll continue with this method as I am getting a little too much on my trading plate at the moment. I have also been tracking a couple of Turtle trades, short on JPY and long EUR, with neither really going anywhere.
During the week, I have been looking at some other methods where it again dawned on me that I am going back to my old ways of trying everything and not really settling in my trading. The Power Break trades are certainly part of the plan for now, and ideally I would like one other trading method based on other pairs involving the use of daily charts. Having a little problem with finding something at the moment. I am also going back to my thinking of 10-20pts a day would be suffice if you could just about guarantee it on a daily basis. I know there are no 'guarantees' in trading, so it is going to take something special to achieve these reults, but as always, I have a few ideas.
My live trading is with Oanda, where I normally risk 2% on my major trades. These being the Power Break trades which always have a 40pt stop, the SITM trades which use a max stop of 175pts and the Daily trades which have a standard 300pt stop. With using 2% risk, my position sizes are obviously going to be different for each type of trade, and I always base my position size on the max loss for the method. Any other method I try, I still trade live on Oanda, but only use a very small position size which is normally around 1000 units. This just keeps me interested enough to make a few dollars if it goes my way, or it is not a big enough loss to get concerned about if it goes against me.
Also went for a job interview on Friday, and not sure how I went. If I were to get the job, then my trading will be suspended for approx three months whilst I complete my training away from home. Watch this space for further updates. Life's Good!!
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Week Ending 5.1.07
Nearly back into the trading full on. A little bit of action this week to get me in the mood.
Started back with the Power Break trades on Thursday as the set ups looked too good to pass on. Luckily enough I was proved right with both pairs having a win. This was followed by another successful GBP trade on Friday. Good start, with a +120pt profit for the three trades.
I wasn't so lucky on a SITM CAD short. In and out all in the same day resulting in a -109pt loss. Friday's big outside day killed me.
My AUD long from last week is still open, but not looking too healthy finishing the week at -70pts. The AUD seemed to suffer a bit on Friday for some unknown reason. Will have to wait and see on this one.
Now in my pursuit of a good daily chart trading method, I have been looking at the Turtle Trading rules, and having a bit of a play to see if it would suit my style. In a couple of trades at the moment, a JPY short and a EUR long, and just in with very small positions. It looks as though it will be a slow process with plenty of losses along the way. But I am sure, when you do nail a good trade, it will more than make up for the losses. Time will tell, and I will certainly track it for a while as it is so easy to set up.
That's it for another week. Back into the full on trading next week, with the Power Break method being my bread and butter for now. At least the weather doesn't have to be fine to trade, as it has been bucketing down here for a few days now. My son is up here on the Gold Coast for holidays from Victoria, for the last three weeks, and in his opinion, the weather has been crap. I hope he takes it back to Vic with him as I am a little sick of it also. Anyway the cricket is on and there is beer to be drunk. Life's Good!
Started back with the Power Break trades on Thursday as the set ups looked too good to pass on. Luckily enough I was proved right with both pairs having a win. This was followed by another successful GBP trade on Friday. Good start, with a +120pt profit for the three trades.
I wasn't so lucky on a SITM CAD short. In and out all in the same day resulting in a -109pt loss. Friday's big outside day killed me.
My AUD long from last week is still open, but not looking too healthy finishing the week at -70pts. The AUD seemed to suffer a bit on Friday for some unknown reason. Will have to wait and see on this one.
Now in my pursuit of a good daily chart trading method, I have been looking at the Turtle Trading rules, and having a bit of a play to see if it would suit my style. In a couple of trades at the moment, a JPY short and a EUR long, and just in with very small positions. It looks as though it will be a slow process with plenty of losses along the way. But I am sure, when you do nail a good trade, it will more than make up for the losses. Time will tell, and I will certainly track it for a while as it is so easy to set up.
That's it for another week. Back into the full on trading next week, with the Power Break method being my bread and butter for now. At least the weather doesn't have to be fine to trade, as it has been bucketing down here for a few days now. My son is up here on the Gold Coast for holidays from Victoria, for the last three weeks, and in his opinion, the weather has been crap. I hope he takes it back to Vic with him as I am a little sick of it also. Anyway the cricket is on and there is beer to be drunk. Life's Good!
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Week Ending 29.12.07
A pretty quiet week in the trading world, which is to be expected at this time of year. There were no Power Break Challenge trades however my Daily CHF long was stopped out at break even. I also went long on the AUD on Friday at 0.8787 based on the same system. It ended the week at -30pts. Still early days. I may have missed a few trades with this method as several signals were given, but I was reluctant to enter because of the low volume.
Well Christmas has come and gone, and waht a good day it was. Spent the day with the wife's family up in Greenbank. Not the usual unbearable hot weather, and it was actually a little chilly once the sun went down. Santa was good to me though, and now we have the New Year celebrations to get through, and then the trading and the fitness start again. Life's pretty good!
Well Christmas has come and gone, and waht a good day it was. Spent the day with the wife's family up in Greenbank. Not the usual unbearable hot weather, and it was actually a little chilly once the sun went down. Santa was good to me though, and now we have the New Year celebrations to get through, and then the trading and the fitness start again. Life's pretty good!
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Week Ending 22.12.07
Well Christmas is nearly upon us. The trading is basically finished for the year now due to the low volume. Certainly not worth getting too stressed about.
My SITM CAD long was stopped out during the week resulting in an overall loss of -122pts. Didn't quite reach the 50% mark before pulling back and stopping me out. Nothing new to report on this method at the moment.
My other long term trade, the CHF long based on the daily technical analysis as remained positive, but has not yet hit the +200pt mark. Came close a few times but not to be. Closed the week around the +128 mark, so still looking okay. The stop has been moved to break even on this due to the fact that I believe I am currently trading against the major trend for now.
Now to the Power Break method. There were 11x trades for the week with 6x winners and 5x losers resulting in a +80pt profit for the week. So not a bad result there considering the markets are really doing that much at the moment. Looking forward to the new year with this method as I believe it will eventually take off.
So busting my guts at the moment working, where everyone is getting ready for Christmas. I'm looking forward to Tuesday just for a break. You can tell it's getting close as the weather is pretty hot here on the Gold Coast and the tourist numbers are building up. Not sure if there will be any trading next week as I may just keep an eye on the daily charts. Have a good one all and enjoy the festive season. Life's Good!
My SITM CAD long was stopped out during the week resulting in an overall loss of -122pts. Didn't quite reach the 50% mark before pulling back and stopping me out. Nothing new to report on this method at the moment.
My other long term trade, the CHF long based on the daily technical analysis as remained positive, but has not yet hit the +200pt mark. Came close a few times but not to be. Closed the week around the +128 mark, so still looking okay. The stop has been moved to break even on this due to the fact that I believe I am currently trading against the major trend for now.
Now to the Power Break method. There were 11x trades for the week with 6x winners and 5x losers resulting in a +80pt profit for the week. So not a bad result there considering the markets are really doing that much at the moment. Looking forward to the new year with this method as I believe it will eventually take off.
So busting my guts at the moment working, where everyone is getting ready for Christmas. I'm looking forward to Tuesday just for a break. You can tell it's getting close as the weather is pretty hot here on the Gold Coast and the tourist numbers are building up. Not sure if there will be any trading next week as I may just keep an eye on the daily charts. Have a good one all and enjoy the festive season. Life's Good!
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Week Ending 15.12.07
Back from my short stay on the Sunshine Coast, which I thoroughly enjoyed as it was so relaxing! I did manage to trade there via internet cafe, which didn't intefere that much with our liesure time. My oldest son is now back home on leave from the Navy also, so definitely getting in holiday mode now.
Now to the trading. My SITM JPY long, after hitting the 50% mark, pulled back to the point of entry, closing me out at break even. This is startint ot happen more often now and is begining to bug me. I may consider taking half profit at the 50% mark. Still thinking about it. This is probably not the best time of the year to see big moves anyway. There was another SITM trade opened during the week, this being a CAD long at 1.0125. I was about 7pts late on the entry, which really isn't an issue. Not doing much though, closing the week at +43pts.
There was another trade entered off my latest tech analysis on the daily charts, this being a CHF long at 1.1420, which ended the week at +104pts. I'll be looking to close half at +200pts if it gets there. I am looking at the daily charts more and more, looking for longer term trades with less computer watching. More on that later.
Now to the Power Break trades. It has been an eventful week to say the least. Started off with a bang on Monday, having 2 x 40pt winners. Tuesday not so good, losing -36pts, but then Wednesday went bad. 3x straight losses for a -120pts, which was followed on Thursday by another 2x losses for -80pts. There were a few trades that came within a point of their target, but not too be. Friday finished the week well with 2x winners at +130pts. So overall, ended the week at -26pts, which wasn't that bad considering.
The developer of the Power Break trades admitted that he had gone away from his original rules during the last couple of weeks, chasing trades trying to get the challenge back on track. There were grumblings from his clients which forced him into this admission and back on track. I have still no reason to complain, as I am still in the black from when I started this method of trading. So on on for the time being.
That's it for another week. The weather is hot and the beer is cold, and by golly are the shops busy. It is certaily getting very close to Christmas with plenty of winding down and partying. So life is good, with the Aussies beating the Kiwis in the first One Dayer, but I'm not sure of a Kiwi coaching the Wallabies. Time will tell. Cheers.
Now to the trading. My SITM JPY long, after hitting the 50% mark, pulled back to the point of entry, closing me out at break even. This is startint ot happen more often now and is begining to bug me. I may consider taking half profit at the 50% mark. Still thinking about it. This is probably not the best time of the year to see big moves anyway. There was another SITM trade opened during the week, this being a CAD long at 1.0125. I was about 7pts late on the entry, which really isn't an issue. Not doing much though, closing the week at +43pts.
There was another trade entered off my latest tech analysis on the daily charts, this being a CHF long at 1.1420, which ended the week at +104pts. I'll be looking to close half at +200pts if it gets there. I am looking at the daily charts more and more, looking for longer term trades with less computer watching. More on that later.
Now to the Power Break trades. It has been an eventful week to say the least. Started off with a bang on Monday, having 2 x 40pt winners. Tuesday not so good, losing -36pts, but then Wednesday went bad. 3x straight losses for a -120pts, which was followed on Thursday by another 2x losses for -80pts. There were a few trades that came within a point of their target, but not too be. Friday finished the week well with 2x winners at +130pts. So overall, ended the week at -26pts, which wasn't that bad considering.
The developer of the Power Break trades admitted that he had gone away from his original rules during the last couple of weeks, chasing trades trying to get the challenge back on track. There were grumblings from his clients which forced him into this admission and back on track. I have still no reason to complain, as I am still in the black from when I started this method of trading. So on on for the time being.
That's it for another week. The weather is hot and the beer is cold, and by golly are the shops busy. It is certaily getting very close to Christmas with plenty of winding down and partying. So life is good, with the Aussies beating the Kiwis in the first One Dayer, but I'm not sure of a Kiwi coaching the Wallabies. Time will tell. Cheers.
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Week Ending 8.12.07
Another fairly quiet week in my trading world. There was one new SITM trade activated, which was a long on the JPY at 110.54. As it has now passed the 50% mark, the stop has now been moved to break even. So still open and hoping one of these trades continues on.
With regards to the Power Break system, still plodding along without setting the world on fire. I made a couple of mistakes this week which probably cost me a few points, but still okay. There were 12x trades for the week, with 5x winners, 6x losers and 1x break even, which resulted in a huge overall profit of +14pts. I'll take that over a loss any day!
Now the technical daily set up I have been talking about gave its first signal during the week. A sell on the GBP, where I got in at 2.0453. My intention is to close half around 200pts and then let the remaining half run and see how it pans out. Well I closed the first half at +226, and the remaining half was closed out accidentally at +158pts. So this gave me an overall profit of +189pts. The 2nd half was closed on Oanda when I went long on the GBP with a Power Break trade. My 2nd half is still open on Collective 2 though. Something I am going to have to work out, maybe use a sub account. But it was a good result anyway.
Off to the Sunshine Coast for a few days R&R, so not sure how my trading will go early next week. I'll try and get to an Internet Cafe and keep tabs on it. Bit of a mystery tour though. Have fun, cause i will be. Life's Good!
With regards to the Power Break system, still plodding along without setting the world on fire. I made a couple of mistakes this week which probably cost me a few points, but still okay. There were 12x trades for the week, with 5x winners, 6x losers and 1x break even, which resulted in a huge overall profit of +14pts. I'll take that over a loss any day!
Now the technical daily set up I have been talking about gave its first signal during the week. A sell on the GBP, where I got in at 2.0453. My intention is to close half around 200pts and then let the remaining half run and see how it pans out. Well I closed the first half at +226, and the remaining half was closed out accidentally at +158pts. So this gave me an overall profit of +189pts. The 2nd half was closed on Oanda when I went long on the GBP with a Power Break trade. My 2nd half is still open on Collective 2 though. Something I am going to have to work out, maybe use a sub account. But it was a good result anyway.
Off to the Sunshine Coast for a few days R&R, so not sure how my trading will go early next week. I'll try and get to an Internet Cafe and keep tabs on it. Bit of a mystery tour though. Have fun, cause i will be. Life's Good!
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Week Ending 1.12.07
A bit busier this week with the trading and also my real job. I was eventually stopped out on the JPY short SITM trade at break even. Bit of a bummer I guess, because it had been up over 300pts a couple of times. But have to follow the rules, and closing out the AUD last week proved to be a smart move.
There were also a few more Power Break trades this week, ten in all. 5x winners and 5x losers, but as one of the winners for 70pts instead of the usual 40pts, managed to end up a massive +30pts up for the week. Overall November was a pretty below average month for this method. But like any method, it will have losing periods. So no need to be concerned at this time.
The daily charts and the technical system I am looking at hasn't produced any signals as yet. Have to have patience with this one. It will be a bit like the SITM trades, which can be far and few between. A little bit boring for me, but as long as it is profitable, who really cares.
Getting near Christmas now and the bills are rolling in. Short holiday at the end of this week, so looking forward to that. Lifes good!
There were also a few more Power Break trades this week, ten in all. 5x winners and 5x losers, but as one of the winners for 70pts instead of the usual 40pts, managed to end up a massive +30pts up for the week. Overall November was a pretty below average month for this method. But like any method, it will have losing periods. So no need to be concerned at this time.
The daily charts and the technical system I am looking at hasn't produced any signals as yet. Have to have patience with this one. It will be a bit like the SITM trades, which can be far and few between. A little bit boring for me, but as long as it is profitable, who really cares.
Getting near Christmas now and the bills are rolling in. Short holiday at the end of this week, so looking forward to that. Lifes good!
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Week Ending 24.11.07
Another week gone and not much realy happened tradewise. Again there were no Power Break trades for either Monday or Tuesday. Come Wednesday, I had to work late and missed a sell trade on the EUR/JPY. I did enter but was about 10pts too late, so decided to bail out at break even. Should have held my nerve, as it did go on to hit the target which would have given me 30pts. Not to be! After that there were 5x more trades for the week with 3x losers and 2x winners. Overall it was a loss of -38pts for the week on this method. The odd number was a result of me forgetting to set a profit target on one of my trades where I manually closed it at +42pts. Not exactly setting the world on fire, but not getting hammered either, which is a good thing.
Now I also had the two SITM daily trades open at the commencement of the week. These being a short on both the AUD and JPY. They both eventually took off in my preferred direction, both passing through the 50% mark, where stops were moved to break even. I ended up closing the AUD for a +245pts profit on Thursday as it looked as though it was stalling to me, and that I wanted to reduce my overall risk as I was still open on the JPY. Whether that was the right decision or not, only time will tell. The JPY has been up over +300pts, so hopefully it will produce a profit eventually. The SITM method is proving to be a fairly consistent method. Not spectacular, but still profitable all the same.
I have been toying with another idea based on daily charts using a technical method I have previously used on 1hr and 2hr charts. This being the Flexitrade method. It is a very good method on the smaller time frames but very difficult to monitor when one works fulltime at a real job. Therefore I am looking at a longer time frame, and the daily charts appeal to me. This is still early days and the stops would be huge (up to 300pts), but the profits would also be potentially quite huge. But with a good money management system in place, it shouldn't be a problem to trade. Watch this space for further developments.
Well it is our Federal Election as I type this and it looks as though we may be having a change of government. Nothing set in concrete as yet, but it ain't looking good for Johnny Howard and co. Not sure if this will be a good thing or not, even though I am a Liberal voter. A change may give the party a kick in the pants it needs. Doesn't really bug me one way or the other.
That's it for the week. Lifes' good.
Now I also had the two SITM daily trades open at the commencement of the week. These being a short on both the AUD and JPY. They both eventually took off in my preferred direction, both passing through the 50% mark, where stops were moved to break even. I ended up closing the AUD for a +245pts profit on Thursday as it looked as though it was stalling to me, and that I wanted to reduce my overall risk as I was still open on the JPY. Whether that was the right decision or not, only time will tell. The JPY has been up over +300pts, so hopefully it will produce a profit eventually. The SITM method is proving to be a fairly consistent method. Not spectacular, but still profitable all the same.
I have been toying with another idea based on daily charts using a technical method I have previously used on 1hr and 2hr charts. This being the Flexitrade method. It is a very good method on the smaller time frames but very difficult to monitor when one works fulltime at a real job. Therefore I am looking at a longer time frame, and the daily charts appeal to me. This is still early days and the stops would be huge (up to 300pts), but the profits would also be potentially quite huge. But with a good money management system in place, it shouldn't be a problem to trade. Watch this space for further developments.
Well it is our Federal Election as I type this and it looks as though we may be having a change of government. Nothing set in concrete as yet, but it ain't looking good for Johnny Howard and co. Not sure if this will be a good thing or not, even though I am a Liberal voter. A change may give the party a kick in the pants it needs. Doesn't really bug me one way or the other.
That's it for the week. Lifes' good.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Week Ending 17.11.07
Not a bad week this week. The SITM EUR trade ended up closing at break even, which I guess was a little dissapointing after being up so many pips. But I am following a strict set of rules, so I can't really complain. I am now open a AUD short and a JPY short which aren't doing too much by week's close. The AUD is at +10 and the JPY is at -41. Just biding my time for the big move that will eventually happen.
Now to the Power Break system. There were no trades on either Monday or Tuesday, but managed to finish the week with 6x trades, resulting in 2x losses and 4x winners, giving me an overall result of +80pts for the week. Good result in my books, as I especially like the simplicity of the system and that I don't have to do much work.
Not much else happening this week other than confirmation that Willie Mason has become a Rooster. I'm not a big Willie fan, but since he has gone to the Roosters, I guess I'll have to grow to appreciate his talents. Other than that, it is definitely cricket season, with the Aussies doing well against the Sri Lankans. Life's good.
Now to the Power Break system. There were no trades on either Monday or Tuesday, but managed to finish the week with 6x trades, resulting in 2x losses and 4x winners, giving me an overall result of +80pts for the week. Good result in my books, as I especially like the simplicity of the system and that I don't have to do much work.
Not much else happening this week other than confirmation that Willie Mason has become a Rooster. I'm not a big Willie fan, but since he has gone to the Roosters, I guess I'll have to grow to appreciate his talents. Other than that, it is definitely cricket season, with the Aussies doing well against the Sri Lankans. Life's good.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Week Ending 10.11.07
Another pretty quiet week with only 4x days trading due to my trip to Melbourne on Friday. I was still trading the Power Break method which only produced the 5x trades, for 3x wins and 2x losses, so ended up +40pts profit for the week. If I had traded Friday, there would have been another 3x trades for an overall +40pt result, but not to be.
I am also still in the SITM EUR long which finished the week at +187pts. The stop is now at break even, so I'll just see how it pans out. It looks though that the stop maybe moved up to lock some profit in. Watch this space.
Spent Friday and the weekend in the Melbourne area as my oldest son graduated from the Navy Recruit School. It was a good trip and it makes me happy to see him actually achieving something in life. Hopefully he will go on with it as he now begins his Category training in Sydney.
Life's Good.
I am also still in the SITM EUR long which finished the week at +187pts. The stop is now at break even, so I'll just see how it pans out. It looks though that the stop maybe moved up to lock some profit in. Watch this space.
Spent Friday and the weekend in the Melbourne area as my oldest son graduated from the Navy Recruit School. It was a good trip and it makes me happy to see him actually achieving something in life. Hopefully he will go on with it as he now begins his Category training in Sydney.
Life's Good.
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Week Ending 3.11.07
Took me a couple of days to get started this week as I was studying another couple of methods I purchased late last week. One of these methods is what they call the Power Break. It only involves the EUR/JPY and GBP, where at a certain time of the day on each, you check their daily ranges and then place an order to buy and sell both if the criteria is met. So it is a set and forget method with nominated stops and targets. Then early the following day (4am QLD time) all trades/orders are then closed. It uses a 40pt stop and a 40pt target on all trades.
I started on Wednesday with this and had 2x winners for the night (+80pts). They were the only two trades. Thursday brought me back to earth with 2x losses and 1x winner (-40pts) and then on Friday, ended up with 1x loser (-40pts). So at the end of the week, ended up at break even with this method. And for very little effort on my part, that is not such a bad result. The developer of the method claims it should make on average, about 400pts a month. If this is the case, then I would be more than happy with that. Time will tell.
Because of the above Power Break method, I have reduced the number of pairs I now follow on the Safety in the Market method down to four. They are the EUR, AUD, CAD and JPY. I only have to check these first thing in the morning, so very little time required here also. There was only the 2x trades this week, an AUD long which was stopped out for a -93pt loss and a EUR long which is till open and just in positive territory. I was a little concerned about the recent spate of losing trades witht his method, so I had a quick look at my figures, and it appears I have nothing to worry about. The profits in pips certainly more than make up for the losses to date. So all good still.
I have also ramped up money management strategy this week, by using the forumla of account balance x risked percentage, divided by risk in pips. This will give me a constant position size for each trade. My risk per trade is 2% across the board. This is a simple excercise on Oanda as it allows me to trade the exact amount specified without rounding up or down as would be required on other platforms.
Not sure what has happened to my Collective 2, as it is showing me down over $200K. Must be a temporary glitch in the system.
So now I am looking for less screen watching time, which will give more time to do other stuff. Big weekend this weekend, with my nephew Luke's 18th birthday party today, and also celebrtaing Mum's birthday. The weather is hot and hopefully the beer will be cold. Also off to Melbourne next weekend to attend my son's graduation from Navy School. Life's good!
I started on Wednesday with this and had 2x winners for the night (+80pts). They were the only two trades. Thursday brought me back to earth with 2x losses and 1x winner (-40pts) and then on Friday, ended up with 1x loser (-40pts). So at the end of the week, ended up at break even with this method. And for very little effort on my part, that is not such a bad result. The developer of the method claims it should make on average, about 400pts a month. If this is the case, then I would be more than happy with that. Time will tell.
Because of the above Power Break method, I have reduced the number of pairs I now follow on the Safety in the Market method down to four. They are the EUR, AUD, CAD and JPY. I only have to check these first thing in the morning, so very little time required here also. There was only the 2x trades this week, an AUD long which was stopped out for a -93pt loss and a EUR long which is till open and just in positive territory. I was a little concerned about the recent spate of losing trades witht his method, so I had a quick look at my figures, and it appears I have nothing to worry about. The profits in pips certainly more than make up for the losses to date. So all good still.
I have also ramped up money management strategy this week, by using the forumla of account balance x risked percentage, divided by risk in pips. This will give me a constant position size for each trade. My risk per trade is 2% across the board. This is a simple excercise on Oanda as it allows me to trade the exact amount specified without rounding up or down as would be required on other platforms.
Not sure what has happened to my Collective 2, as it is showing me down over $200K. Must be a temporary glitch in the system.
So now I am looking for less screen watching time, which will give more time to do other stuff. Big weekend this weekend, with my nephew Luke's 18th birthday party today, and also celebrtaing Mum's birthday. The weather is hot and hopefully the beer will be cold. Also off to Melbourne next weekend to attend my son's graduation from Navy School. Life's good!
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
An Update
Well I'm back from my most enjoyable South Pacific cruise. A bit rough and wet to start off with but the weather came around nicely to finish with a bang. Probably ate and drank too much, but that's what it is all about!
Now to the trading. I decided to close half of my AUD position at break even before I left, just to reduce my risk. In hindsight, this proved a smart move. I left my remaining AUD portion and my CAD short open when I left our fair shores. I had also placed a stop on the CAD at 0.9825 to lock in some profit. You wouldn't believe that it ook this stop out to the exact point. How unlucky was that, considering the CAD then dropped another couple of hundred points. I still managed to nail +106pts on this, which coupled with the first half of the trade at +256pts, gave a healthy total of +362pts. But sadly, the AUD long was stopped out for a loss of -107pts, before shooting back up again. That's trading for you.
At the moment, I am completely out of the market and studying something else at the moment. I will go into this method in future posts when I get a better handle on it. Not that it is difficult, I just want to check it out further before committing. I will also stick with the daily SITM trades and currently waiting on new set ups. That's it for now.
So much for the local Glasgow derby as Celtic got hammered 3-0. Another bottle of rum I owe my brother.
Now to the trading. I decided to close half of my AUD position at break even before I left, just to reduce my risk. In hindsight, this proved a smart move. I left my remaining AUD portion and my CAD short open when I left our fair shores. I had also placed a stop on the CAD at 0.9825 to lock in some profit. You wouldn't believe that it ook this stop out to the exact point. How unlucky was that, considering the CAD then dropped another couple of hundred points. I still managed to nail +106pts on this, which coupled with the first half of the trade at +256pts, gave a healthy total of +362pts. But sadly, the AUD long was stopped out for a loss of -107pts, before shooting back up again. That's trading for you.
At the moment, I am completely out of the market and studying something else at the moment. I will go into this method in future posts when I get a better handle on it. Not that it is difficult, I just want to check it out further before committing. I will also stick with the daily SITM trades and currently waiting on new set ups. That's it for now.
So much for the local Glasgow derby as Celtic got hammered 3-0. Another bottle of rum I owe my brother.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
17th Week
It was a pretty quiet week trading wise. I continued on with the Safety in the Market daily trades, but there was no other trading. I have given the 'Can't Lose' trading a miss for now as it is just not worth the risk. Sure if you had the balls, you could rack up some quick and spectacular profits, but it would only take one trade to go against you badly, and then you would be in the poo!
With regards to the SITM trades, the CAD hit the 50% target so I closed half of my position for a profit of +256pts, with the remaining half stop now at break even. It closed the week at +197pts, so looking good here. The AUD is also looking healthy at +132 and +83. I am also long on the JPY at 117.49, but it hasn't been doing much and finished the week at +11. Having said all that, I did have a loss of -119pts on the long EUR trade I mentioned last week. But overall, it was a pretty good week, albeit a quiet one.
Now my trading has been going for nearly 4 months now, having seriously got back into it in mid June this year. To date I have built up my account by just over 30%. This has been done pretty easy with not much thought put into money management nor compounding. I am a very conservative trader when it comes to risk, so there is very little chance of me ever receiving margin calls or blowing an account before I realise what I am doing is not working.
I am thinking I may now take it up another level and start putting more thought into my position size and also increasing the risk a little. I won't go silly, but I certainly have some room to move. I enjoy the SITM method as it is easy to track and requires little monitoring, but at times it can be very boring. I am looking at using the same method, but on smaller time frames. A bit of research involved here, but I think it can be viable. More on that later though.
This week, I will just plod on as is for now, as the following week I am off on a cruise for 7 days to celebrate our 20th wedding anniversary. On my return, I'll crank up the trading and get right into it. I'm still of the opinion that Forex trading is the way to go and the vehicle to make a good deal of money if you are smart about it. No need to be greedy, just consistent. Simple, isn't it??
Pretty quiet week in sport now that I have lost interest in the Rugby World Cup, but the Aussies are giving the Indians a bit of a touch up in the cricket one dayers over in India. Celtic had a good win over giants Milan also, and Rangers touched up French team Lyons. I think it is a Glasgow derby this weekend also. Enjoy! Cheers.
With regards to the SITM trades, the CAD hit the 50% target so I closed half of my position for a profit of +256pts, with the remaining half stop now at break even. It closed the week at +197pts, so looking good here. The AUD is also looking healthy at +132 and +83. I am also long on the JPY at 117.49, but it hasn't been doing much and finished the week at +11. Having said all that, I did have a loss of -119pts on the long EUR trade I mentioned last week. But overall, it was a pretty good week, albeit a quiet one.
Now my trading has been going for nearly 4 months now, having seriously got back into it in mid June this year. To date I have built up my account by just over 30%. This has been done pretty easy with not much thought put into money management nor compounding. I am a very conservative trader when it comes to risk, so there is very little chance of me ever receiving margin calls or blowing an account before I realise what I am doing is not working.
I am thinking I may now take it up another level and start putting more thought into my position size and also increasing the risk a little. I won't go silly, but I certainly have some room to move. I enjoy the SITM method as it is easy to track and requires little monitoring, but at times it can be very boring. I am looking at using the same method, but on smaller time frames. A bit of research involved here, but I think it can be viable. More on that later though.
This week, I will just plod on as is for now, as the following week I am off on a cruise for 7 days to celebrate our 20th wedding anniversary. On my return, I'll crank up the trading and get right into it. I'm still of the opinion that Forex trading is the way to go and the vehicle to make a good deal of money if you are smart about it. No need to be greedy, just consistent. Simple, isn't it??
Pretty quiet week in sport now that I have lost interest in the Rugby World Cup, but the Aussies are giving the Indians a bit of a touch up in the cricket one dayers over in India. Celtic had a good win over giants Milan also, and Rangers touched up French team Lyons. I think it is a Glasgow derby this weekend also. Enjoy! Cheers.
Sunday, October 07, 2007
16th Week
Not a bad week for trading! I kept up with my Safety in the Market trades which are based on the daily charts. The EUR long was eventually stopped out at +197pts on the 2nd half. So not a bad result with over 300pts overall on this trade. The CAD short is still open at +212 and +120 at the close of trading on Friday. I am also long on the AUD which ended up at +72 and +23 at weeks end. I am now also long on the EUR again which finished at -20 for the week. So hopefully the USD will continue to weaken next week. It is nice and easy this Safety in the Market trades as it requires minimal chart watching.
This week I have also been playing with another method of trading, which to say the least, is a very risky but profitable way of trading. Not everybody's cup of tea and involves the martingale method to a certain extent. It is actually called the 'Can't Lose' method, but that is not quite correct. You can lose, and lose badly if things go horribly wrong. It is a method where you enter with a very small position with a certain target in mind, which in my case is 50pts. I did manage 5 trades this week using this method and nailed 200pts without too much heartache. The 5th trade closed out at break even as I stuffed up the figures on my spreadsheet. More on this method later, if it pans out okay.
Big weekend in sport with the shock departure of both the Wallabies and the All Blacks from the Rugby World Cup. I was a little bit pissed off this morning! But I ended up watching the great race at Bathurst all day, with Craig Lowndes having a good win. The boy is back to school tomorrow, broken leg and all. Overall, life is pretty good! Cheers.
This week I have also been playing with another method of trading, which to say the least, is a very risky but profitable way of trading. Not everybody's cup of tea and involves the martingale method to a certain extent. It is actually called the 'Can't Lose' method, but that is not quite correct. You can lose, and lose badly if things go horribly wrong. It is a method where you enter with a very small position with a certain target in mind, which in my case is 50pts. I did manage 5 trades this week using this method and nailed 200pts without too much heartache. The 5th trade closed out at break even as I stuffed up the figures on my spreadsheet. More on this method later, if it pans out okay.
Big weekend in sport with the shock departure of both the Wallabies and the All Blacks from the Rugby World Cup. I was a little bit pissed off this morning! But I ended up watching the great race at Bathurst all day, with Craig Lowndes having a good win. The boy is back to school tomorrow, broken leg and all. Overall, life is pretty good! Cheers.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
15th Week
A bit of a late update, again. It was a bit of a mixed bag with some good results and some poor results.
My Safety in the Market EUR long is still open and currently up about +270pts as I type this. Keep in mind, I have already closed half this trade at +134pts. The stop is now at a spot where it will lock in at least 200pts. So looking good on this trade, which has been open since 17.9.07.
I have also got a 2nd SITM trade open, where i went short the CAD at 1.0023 nad 0.9931 on 27.9.07 and 29.9.07. This trade still hasn't really taken off, but looking okay for now.
I also continued with my Traders Key 1hr trades. Mixed success here, but overall it was around a break even result on these trades, finishing a grand +8.5pts in profit. I did try to keep my live trades in sync with my Collective 2 trades, but that didn't happen. I was a bit all over the place. My other problem is that I didn't take all the signals when given, skipping a few. It was not possible to take any CAD or EUR trades due to me already being in SITM trades with these pairs. I do believe I was a little unlucky on a couple of trades also, being stopped out by a pip or two and then taking off in the intended direction. But that's trading for you.
Time to get my act together with getting my trades in sync. Once my account builds up a bit, I may consider splitting my account into sub accounts where I can trade both systems independantly.
A huge weekend just gone in sport with both Grand Finals decided. Big wins to Melbourne Storm in the NRL and Geelong in the AFL. Both deserved too I might add. The Rugby World Cup is at the business end now with The Wallabies up against the old enemy in the QF this weekend and Scotland up against Argentina. Bathurst 1000 is also on, so should be a big one.
That's about it for now. The trading goes on, slowly but surely. It would be nice to get hold of a method with a bit more get and go, but I have to be a realist for now. Cheers.
My Safety in the Market EUR long is still open and currently up about +270pts as I type this. Keep in mind, I have already closed half this trade at +134pts. The stop is now at a spot where it will lock in at least 200pts. So looking good on this trade, which has been open since 17.9.07.
I have also got a 2nd SITM trade open, where i went short the CAD at 1.0023 nad 0.9931 on 27.9.07 and 29.9.07. This trade still hasn't really taken off, but looking okay for now.
I also continued with my Traders Key 1hr trades. Mixed success here, but overall it was around a break even result on these trades, finishing a grand +8.5pts in profit. I did try to keep my live trades in sync with my Collective 2 trades, but that didn't happen. I was a bit all over the place. My other problem is that I didn't take all the signals when given, skipping a few. It was not possible to take any CAD or EUR trades due to me already being in SITM trades with these pairs. I do believe I was a little unlucky on a couple of trades also, being stopped out by a pip or two and then taking off in the intended direction. But that's trading for you.
Time to get my act together with getting my trades in sync. Once my account builds up a bit, I may consider splitting my account into sub accounts where I can trade both systems independantly.
A huge weekend just gone in sport with both Grand Finals decided. Big wins to Melbourne Storm in the NRL and Geelong in the AFL. Both deserved too I might add. The Rugby World Cup is at the business end now with The Wallabies up against the old enemy in the QF this weekend and Scotland up against Argentina. Bathurst 1000 is also on, so should be a big one.
That's about it for now. The trading goes on, slowly but surely. It would be nice to get hold of a method with a bit more get and go, but I have to be a realist for now. Cheers.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
13th & 14th Weeks
Some people say that 13 is unlucky, but no problems for me as I had the whole week off from trading. Hence my two week gap on the blog. I just wanted to recharge my batteries and spend some quality time with family.
But the break didn't last long and it did give me a chance to look at some old trading methods I have available to me. As stated in the previous post, I have just about got the smaller time frame trading out of my system. No doubt, I'll probably dabble in something else along those lines sometime in the future, but for now it is at least hourly data I'll be concentrating on.
During the week I decided to give my old Safety in the Market ABC system a run on the daily charts. I know that there are a lot of traders against SITM and their methods, but I do find the system a very simple and reliable method that is very easy to understand and manage. So I have been tracking the EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and EUR/JPY with this method and managed the one trade so far.
I went long on the EUR on Tuesday at 1.3897 and at 1.3928. I have since closed half my position at 1.4031 and the remaining half has now a stop in place at break even. Not the most exciting trading in the world, but has the potential to capture some very big moves. I'll keep the blog updated with further trades as they happen, using this method.
I have also continued collating the 1hr data on the Traders Key, but only concentrating on taking new signals between 4pm and midnight QLD time. The problem with this is, that I tend to miss some very good signals on the JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD as a fair bit of their trading is done during the Asian session. I can't monitor these entries due to my normal job. I have worked out a stop strategy for each pair, and will also look at closing half the position when the trade goes to a +40pt profit. My target will be for 100-150pts per week. I will start trading this live this week where I will also post my trades on Collective 2. Looking forward to the challenge as I believe this should be profitable if I am smart about it. The figures I have been collecting are very promising indeed.
Well that's about it from me. The Rugby World Cup is warming up with the Wallabies playing Fiji tonight. The cream appears to rising to the top, however Ireland seem to be struggling somewhat. Plenty of sport on with the NRL final looming, the 20/20 nearing the end and also the Aussie Football girls doing well in their World Cup. A sports fans paradise! Cheers.
But the break didn't last long and it did give me a chance to look at some old trading methods I have available to me. As stated in the previous post, I have just about got the smaller time frame trading out of my system. No doubt, I'll probably dabble in something else along those lines sometime in the future, but for now it is at least hourly data I'll be concentrating on.
During the week I decided to give my old Safety in the Market ABC system a run on the daily charts. I know that there are a lot of traders against SITM and their methods, but I do find the system a very simple and reliable method that is very easy to understand and manage. So I have been tracking the EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and EUR/JPY with this method and managed the one trade so far.
I went long on the EUR on Tuesday at 1.3897 and at 1.3928. I have since closed half my position at 1.4031 and the remaining half has now a stop in place at break even. Not the most exciting trading in the world, but has the potential to capture some very big moves. I'll keep the blog updated with further trades as they happen, using this method.
I have also continued collating the 1hr data on the Traders Key, but only concentrating on taking new signals between 4pm and midnight QLD time. The problem with this is, that I tend to miss some very good signals on the JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD as a fair bit of their trading is done during the Asian session. I can't monitor these entries due to my normal job. I have worked out a stop strategy for each pair, and will also look at closing half the position when the trade goes to a +40pt profit. My target will be for 100-150pts per week. I will start trading this live this week where I will also post my trades on Collective 2. Looking forward to the challenge as I believe this should be profitable if I am smart about it. The figures I have been collecting are very promising indeed.
Well that's about it from me. The Rugby World Cup is warming up with the Wallabies playing Fiji tonight. The cream appears to rising to the top, however Ireland seem to be struggling somewhat. Plenty of sport on with the NRL final looming, the 20/20 nearing the end and also the Aussie Football girls doing well in their World Cup. A sports fans paradise! Cheers.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
